My World Tools

Bayesian Estimation

Set the base rate and test accuracy, then see the updated probability given a positive result.

16.1%

Probability given a positive result

Out of 10000 people

100 actually have it — 95 test positive, 5 test negative anyway

9900 don't have it — 495 still test positive, 9405 correctly test negative

Of the 590 people who test positive, only 95 actually have it

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